Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 73658.671489 77841.549682 82027.455880 86527.634385 91225.739301 95982.682569 101160.186291
2025-04-27 67454.820665 73894.168277 80521.857530 87843.562055 95695.442378 103853.351070 112960.178838
2025-05-04 62639.835935 70606.281508 78989.625066 88449.425773 98806.691506 109781.475582 122269.334784
2025-05-11 58571.146864 67636.466117 77356.254344 88520.244854 100954.924534 114345.483335 129821.185602
2025-05-18 55357.997010 65299.562147 76134.704753 88772.773570 103058.957172 118657.307465 136924.546111
2025-05-25 52548.588042 63195.142878 74971.824150 88899.492194 104852.695502 122485.985761 143378.652892
2025-06-01 50708.760470 62054.005238 74771.614868 89998.953229 107646.320477 127364.218138 150967.201674
2025-06-08 48360.722436 60185.638605 73611.956854 89879.175811 108943.224073 130463.403632 156473.745589
2025-06-15 47068.012682 59473.743856 73722.896686 91170.761628 111822.543767 135347.594974 164024.356556
2025-06-22 45603.355401 58475.904450 73426.510468 91920.111440 114018.200411 139408.919129 170610.531880
2025-06-29 43906.178050 57118.135540 72630.932411 92010.816405 115381.982176 142460.295675 175995.074127
2025-07-06 42302.218820 55804.697321 71825.877126 92031.839452 116614.320051 145322.903879 181139.296313
2025-07-13 41397.420355 55332.170666 72029.769645 93276.338395 119336.871312 149995.985756 188506.537121
2025-07-20 40519.540795 54856.104267 72200.423918 94460.216417 121979.628716 154584.502665 195806.573103
2025-07-27 39414.397578 54047.497150 71920.534631 95055.513866 123881.039047 158272.217635 202032.030571
2025-08-03 38126.622550 52957.268922 71245.570146 95120.219052 125098.685078 161112.764439 207227.826529
2025-08-10 37008.111839 52044.135952 70756.957569 95385.610068 126540.339524 164213.663065 212743.074332
2025-08-17 35893.689978 51096.856613 70189.530651 95519.420466 127793.236436 167069.471162 217958.437222
2025-08-24 35295.154794 50804.943967 70442.903484 96684.551851 130337.838234 171527.785300 225174.337045
2025-08-31 34172.344965 49778.736203 69713.463377 96557.591528 131222.472448 173909.174068 229812.099276
2025-09-07 33735.436216 49655.690878 70147.376071 97926.267349 134013.232644 178684.327499 237463.487062
2025-09-14 33084.389439 49219.579717 70151.131990 98720.247651 136060.133442 182528.399209 243965.955466
2025-09-21 32182.757910 48412.870288 69639.481431 98816.349986 137190.652374 185208.084507 249006.977316